Coinist Daily 7/12
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Welcome to the Friday review. If you take out last weekend from the data set, you could predict that this weekend there's going to be some serious action for Bitcoin. Last weekend was the first one in about a month that put an end to the 'explosive weekend move' theme. So I'm not sure I can point to the weekend & say there has to be a big move although I am still excited about the current Bitcoin setup.
In today's review I break down why I'm viewing Bitcoin as a range from 9.8k to 13k. Price is current right in the middle of the range around 11.4k. In the first section of the review I cover two setups and conditions that I'm tracking this weekend with an outlook of what I expect to happen if either of those conditions are met.
After that I briefly cover the alt market from a macro perspective. Tons of alts look like they want to make a small gain today for the first time all week, but it's not anything that has me convinced just yet. Sticking with the same approach of not wanting to try to pick an alt bottom everyday as any Bitcoin move greater than 5% has sent alts to new lows for weeks. When that bottom does come for alts - a good portion of the focus in these updates will be looking at some potential alt themes/setups to take advantage of.
Full market review video and key points below...
Key Points from Market Review Video & Outlook:
Bitcoin High Timeframe trend
The main focus of the video today is breaking down the range that has formed since the 2019 high and the lowest point of the retrace.
Those two points form a range that price has bounced back and forth in for 2 weeks now. The most recent top at 13k is right at the top of the range. The video covers this very clearly and looks at two potential ideas on where Bitcoin goes next when it moves out of this mid-range area.
Whether or not this is the start of a deeper retracement, or if the 2019 uptrend is ready to continue, this map of levels will give a nice hint very early of where price moves in the short term. The first 10 minutes of the video is worth watching!
- 13k is range high (high timeframe resistance and target if condition 1 is met)
- 9.8k is range low (high timeframe support and target if condition 2 is met)
- In the video I look at two conditions which are explained in two short bullets below if you don't want to watch the 10 minute BTC video coverage. Like any setup they can be wrong or invalidated so I also cover where those ideas would be wrong.
1.) Whether or not price can start closing slightly higher than we are now (11800 zone) would lead me to believe that the top of the range can be reached again.
2) If we start closing below the 10.8k zone, it would lead me to believe that a deeper retrace is going to play out.
How is Bitcoin affecting the rest of the market?
Bitcoin has stayed relatively quiet today which has allowed alts a tiny bit of breathing room. Since April any Bitcoin move higher of 3-5% has crushed alts. And even the violent swings lower have hurt altcoins. They aren't capturing the full upside when Bitcoin moves up (lagging) and also sometimes capturing more downside even when BTC retraces.
Really hard to see a scenario that alts outperform Bitcoin for an extended period of time right now. Put another way: it's hard to time the macro bottom for alts.
Since I believe that when that bottom does happen it will allow alts to outperform for a period of days/weeks/month(s)...I am not focused on trying to knife catch the bottom of alts everyday hoping for a sustained bounce.
So even though Bitcoin sitting still has allowed some alts to put in their first green day of the week, I'm not convinced it can be sustained yet. If Bitcoin sits still with low volatility or moves lower it presents alts a better chance of doing well. But even in that scenario alts only performed well for a period of 24hrs or so 2 weekends ago.
For now - Bitcoin still dominating alts during any move higher and they are only seeing a slight gain when Bitcoin sits still. Would love for the market to eventually buck this trend and make it wrong. At that point it will be time to start getting far more active in the alt market.
Macro Alt Outlook
Based on alts barely getting life even when Bitcoin is sitting still or retracing I'm still avoiding trying to knife catch alts.
In the stream I looked at how the majority of the alt market is actually putting in a positive day. Many coins are forming the first green day or the week or up 5-10%. There is an opportunity there for very active traders but for higher timeframes I would like to see more signs of a reversal before thinking it can be sustained.
Highlighted Charts and Ideas from video:
1/ Bitcoin map of major levels in the range. Full explanation on why a close outside of the 11.8k or 10.8 would be a good hint & possible trade to the next major level.
2/ Handful of alts looked at to see that they are getting positive movement versus Bitcoin but there are concerns about whether these small 5% bounces would hold if Bitcoin moves higher.
Welcome to the weekend. Have a good one and I'll be sending out a weekend update on Saturday or Sunday.